Market research firm International Data Corporation has estimated that Australia’s smartphone shipments will fall by 12.3% in 2020, due to a range of factors related to COVID-19.

“Issues in the manufacturing and supply of mobile devices were the driving factor behind declines experienced in 2020 Q1, especially in the January and February sections of the quarter,” said John Riga, Associate Market Analyst at IDC ANZ.

In Q1 2020 Apple had 39.7% of total market share, followed by Samsung (35%), OPPO (4.2%), HMD (4.1%), and TCL (3.5%).

“However, with persistent economic uncertainty and higher levels of unemployment and underemployment, further declines may occur in Q2 and subsequent quarters, this time driven by a decline in demand as consumers become more careful with their spending,” said Riga.

Furthermore, some key vendors are expected to delay new product launches until the end of the year, which would also contribute to declines in smartphone shipments in the second and third quarters.

IDC is also forecasting there to be a shift in the average selling price of smartphones, as consumers move towards cheaper offerings. “We’ve already seen a trend of consumers turning to mid-range devices in increasing numbers over the past quarters. Current conditions, as well as the vast range of lower-cost devices being released each quarter, will likely exacerbate this trend,” said Riga.

In May Samsung expanded its family of affordable Galaxy A smartphones. Last year the $280 Galaxy A20 was one of the country’s highest-selling smartphones.

The Australian smartphone market is expected to rebound in 2021, in line with a broader economic recovery.